年内大买近7000亿！港股还能再涨10%？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, while the Hong Kong stock market saw an increase, indicating a divergence in market performance driven by various factors including policy expectations and sector performance [1][5]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - A-shares saw a collective drop with over 3600 stocks declining, while sectors like banking and liquor showed resilience [1][3]. - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remained unchanged, leading to a cooling of expectations for further policy easing in the short term [7][9]. - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is in a phase of risk release and may continue to experience range-bound fluctuations, recommending a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation [4]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Dynamics - Southbound capital has net bought nearly 700 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks this year, accounting for 86% of the total for 2024, with projections suggesting it could exceed 1 trillion HKD for the year [11][13]. - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 17.30% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 14.88% year-to-date, positioning Hong Kong stocks favorably in the global market [16]. - Citigroup forecasts the Hang Seng Index could reach 25,000 points by the end of the year, with potential growth to 26,000 points in 2026, indicating an upside of over 10% [18]. Group 3: Consumer Sector Analysis - The new consumption sector, represented by Pop Mart, faced a nearly 4% decline due to regulatory risks and market saturation, while traditional consumption, particularly liquor, saw gains driven by policy support and recovery expectations [24][28]. - The liquor sector is viewed as a defensive play with valuations at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery [29]. - A balanced investment approach is recommended, utilizing a barbell strategy to manage risks and opportunities in both new and traditional consumption sectors [30][32].