【乘联分会论坛】6月狭义乘用车零售预计200.0万辆，新能源预计110万辆

Market Overview - During the "May Day" holiday, car manufacturers launched promotional policies, leading to a strong performance in the car market in May, with retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reaching 1.938 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% and a month-on-month increase of 10.0% [1] - New energy vehicle retail sales in May reached 1.027 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, with a penetration rate rising to 53.0% [1] June Market Outlook - The car market is expected to continue its upward trend in June, supported by the "trade-in" and "scrap renewal" policies, despite some regions experiencing temporary tightness in subsidy amounts [2] Manufacturer Sales Trends - In June, manufacturers are intensifying promotional efforts to meet quarterly and semi-annual targets, with an overall market discount rate of approximately 24.8% [3] - Retail targets for leading manufacturers are projected to grow by 15% year-on-year compared to May of last year, with an estimated total retail market of around 2 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [3] Weekly Sales Projections - The first week of June saw a decline in daily retail to 42,100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.9% [4] - The second week showed a recovery with daily retail reaching 52,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [4] - The third week, boosted by the "618" e-commerce promotion, is expected to see daily retail reach 68,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [4] - The fourth week is projected to achieve daily sales of 101,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [4] June Market Heat - The arrival of the "618" e-commerce season has prompted manufacturers to launch new promotional campaigns, with the overall market discount rate reaching approximately 25.2% in mid-June [5] - As of May 31, the number of applications for the trade-in subsidy reached 4.12 million, providing significant momentum for the car market [5] - However, some regions are experiencing temporary tightness in trade-in subsidy funds, which may lead to increased consumer hesitation and potential consumption risks in the third quarter [5]