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铜价因美国关税而一枝独秀
日经中文网·2025-06-20 07:30

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising copper prices in the U.S. driven by increased demand and potential tariffs under Trump's administration, highlighting the implications for the copper market and related industries [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - The U.S. is the second-largest copper consumer globally, following China, and has seen a surge in domestic prices due to heightened demand amid tariff discussions [1][3]. - As of June 16, LME's three-month copper futures reached $9,703 per ton, marking an 11% increase since the beginning of the year, contrasting with stable prices for aluminum and nickel [1]. - Traders are actively transporting copper from Asia to the U.S. to capitalize on higher prices, with LME inventories down 60% since early 2025 [1][3]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - Although no tariffs on copper have been implemented yet, the potential for increased tariffs has created a speculative environment, with traders anticipating price hikes [3]. - Following the announcement of higher tariffs on steel and aluminum, copper futures on the COMEX rose by 6%, indicating market sensitivity to tariff news [3]. Group 3: Inventory Concerns - A significant reduction in global copper inventories has been noted, with stocks in six countries dropping to approximately 107,000 tons, the lowest in over a year, reflecting a 60% decline since the beginning of the year [4]. - The concentration of copper in the U.S. could lead to shortages elsewhere, raising concerns about supply stability [4]. Group 4: Market Signals - The futures market is showing signs of "backwardation," where spot prices exceed futures prices, indicating a potential shortage of physical copper [5]. - The price difference between spot and three-month futures reached $96 in early June, the highest in nearly three years, suggesting strong demand for immediate delivery [5]. - Market analysts express concerns that insufficient inventory could lead to increased speculative activity, making it difficult for short positions to be maintained [5].