香港经济受联系汇率制影响，美元信用下降超预期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence of Hong Kong's interest rates from those of the United States, highlighting the implications of this discrepancy on the local economy and financial markets [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - Despite the peg to the US dollar, Hong Kong's interest rates are declining, with the gap between Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) and the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) reaching a record high [1]. - The 1-month HIBOR is currently around 0.5%, the lowest level in approximately three years, while the SOFR is about 4.3% [1]. - The divergence in interest rates has persisted for over a month, attributed to a lack of active arbitrage trading due to trends of de-dollarization [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the currency market by selling and buying US dollars, which increased market liquidity and led to a sharp decline in interest rates [2]. - Major real estate companies in Hong Kong, such as Henderson Land and Sun Hung Kai Properties, have seen their stock prices rise by approximately 20% since the HKMA's intervention [4]. - There are concerns that low interest rates may not last long, as the HKMA may need to buy Hong Kong dollars to stabilize the currency, potentially leading to a rise in HIBOR [4]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The article highlights the contradiction of Hong Kong's monetary policy being tied to the US economy while facing local economic challenges, such as a downturn [1][4]. - The significance of the linked exchange rate system is diminishing amid a declining trust in the US dollar, which may lead to adjustments in Hong Kong's monetary policy [4].