下半年A股怎么走？最新研判来了

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, expecting a gradual upward trend supported by low historical valuation levels and a "double easing" monetary and fiscal policy [2][4][5]. Market Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation, with key attention on trade policies and counter-cyclical adjustments [4][5]. - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a gradual upward shift, with significant attention required around the end of Q3 or Q4 [5]. - The technology sector is expected to show significant calendar effects, with a slow upward trend supported by ample liquidity and policy tools [5][10]. - Chinese assets are viewed as attractive from a global asset pricing perspective, with potential for upward movement as external disturbances ease [5][10]. Investment Strategies - A "barbell strategy" is favored, focusing on high ROE and high dividend assets on one end, and growth assets with valuation elasticity on the other, particularly in the new productivity sectors represented by the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [7][11]. - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a balanced approach to stable and growth-oriented assets [11][12]. - The focus remains on sectors with strong fundamentals, such as high dividend-paying stocks and growth sectors like AI and innovative drugs [17][19]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include technology growth (AI, robotics, self-sufficiency) and new consumption (innovative pharmaceuticals, differentiated emotional consumption) [10][11]. - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to see continued demand growth, with leading companies likely to outperform [8][10]. - The Hong Kong market is seen as having potential in high dividend, new consumption, and financial sectors, with a focus on technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [20][21]. Market Dynamics - The market is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy support, and liquidity, with potential risks from company fundamentals and external economic factors [26][27]. - Key risk factors include trade tensions, global economic cycles, and domestic economic recovery pace, which could impact market sentiment and performance [26][27].