突发，霍尔木兹海峡大消息！原油价格或被“点燃”，比特币已跌破10万美元

Group 1 - The Iranian parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council of Iran. This strait is a crucial maritime route for global oil trade, with about one-third of the world's seaborne oil passing through it [1] - Following the U.S. military's reported strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, leading to significant impacts on global commodity and financial markets. Investors are selling off risk assets, resulting in a sharp decline in cryptocurrency values, including Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 [1][2] Group 2 - Since the Israeli attack on Iran, international oil prices have risen by approximately 10%, with June's increase exceeding 20%. Ongoing political instability in Iran could lead to sustained high oil prices [2] - Oil is the most directly affected commodity by Middle Eastern conflicts. Oil supply from conflict-affected countries typically does not recover until the intensity of the conflict decreases significantly [2][3] - Gold and the U.S. dollar are also gaining attention as safe-haven assets. International gold prices have seen a slight decline, while the U.S. dollar index has increased by 0.64% [2] Group 3 - Market sentiment tends to drive gold prices up before conflicts begin, with two potential price patterns observed post-conflict: prices may spike and then retreat if the conflict was anticipated, or reach a peak around ten days after an unanticipated conflict [3] - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience minimal impact from the conflict unless the U.S. directly intervenes. Historical data suggests that Middle Eastern conflicts primarily affect U.S. stocks in the initial weeks, with recovery typically occurring shortly thereafter [4]