创新药经不起大起大落

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the innovative drug market is uncertain, with investors questioning whether the recent downturn is a temporary fluctuation or a sign of a prolonged decline. The hope is for a gradual upward trend in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector in China has only been active in the secondary market for seven years, experiencing significant volatility that typically takes decades in other industries. From 2020 to 2021, the sector saw explosive growth, with many companies doubling their stock prices, but this was followed by a sharp decline, reaching historical lows by July 2024, with most companies trading below their initial offering prices [3][4]. - The recent recovery in the Hong Kong stock market for innovative drugs began in early 2025, spurred by significant business development (BD) transactions involving companies like 3SBio and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, leading to a bullish sentiment in the A-share market [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Despite the recent market recovery, caution is warranted as the previous surge taught investors that only a small fraction of the thousands of drug pipelines are securing large deals, raising concerns about market viability for many others [5][6]. - The innovative drug industry in China is recognized for its potential, even if much of its current innovation is in the form of fast-follow strategies. Recent record-breaking BD transactions and the emergence of the first domestic "billion-dollar molecule" demonstrate that Chinese innovation can gain international recognition [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The development of innovative drugs is a long-term endeavor, typically requiring an average of ten years and one billion dollars to bring a new drug to market. The industry is still in its growth phase, and the next decade is expected to see a more rational valuation from the capital market, with a call for patience and longer growth cycles [6][7]. - A stable policy environment is crucial for fostering a "slow bull" market in the innovative drug sector. Recent initiatives from the National Healthcare Security Administration to explore new payment models for innovative drugs and the reduction of clinical trial review times are seen as positive steps [7][8]. - A collaborative approach among companies, investors, and regulators, emphasizing long-termism, is essential for the emergence of more internationally competitive innovative drugs. A focus on steady progress rather than rapid growth is advocated to ensure sustainable development [8].