霍尔木兹海峡命悬一线！这两大“最坏情境”不容忽视

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel on the global oil market, highlighting that while geopolitical risks have increased, analysts believe that Iran is unlikely to block the Strait of Hormuz, which would limit the sustainability of the current geopolitical risk premium on oil prices [1][5][7]. Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - Following the conflict's escalation, Brent crude oil futures rose over 3%, reaching $81.40 per barrel, while WTI crude hit $78.40, marking five-month highs. Since June 13, Brent crude has increased by 13%, and WTI by approximately 10% [6]. - The CBOE crude oil volatility index has reached levels similar to those seen shortly after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the geopolitical risk premium may not be sustainable if there are no substantial disruptions to oil supply [7][8]. Worst-Case Scenarios - Two worst-case scenarios are discussed: the potential blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and instability within the Iranian regime. If the Strait were to be blocked, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with some estimates suggesting prices could reach between $100 and $120 per barrel [2][11][12][13]. - Historical data indicates that significant military conflicts involving Israel have not led to lasting impacts on oil prices, with prices often stabilizing and declining over time [8][9]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts from various financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, predict that if oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz is halved due to a blockade, Brent prices could spike to $110, followed by a decline [13]. - The potential for political instability in Iran could lead to significant changes in oil production policies, which may result in prolonged price increases [15][16]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that while the current geopolitical tensions have led to a temporary spike in oil prices, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with analysts expecting prices to stabilize unless there are significant supply disruptions [8][12].