突发！美军基地遭袭！霍尔木兹海峡大消息，油轮紧急掉头！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the implications of U.S. military actions against Iran and the potential impact on global oil prices and shipping routes [1][10]. Group 1: Current Situation in the Strait of Hormuz - Two supertankers, each capable of carrying approximately 2 million barrels of oil, abruptly turned around in the Strait of Hormuz amid fears of retaliation from Iran following U.S. airstrikes [3][4]. - Shipping companies, including Maersk, are closely monitoring the situation and may reassess their operations in the Strait based on evolving conditions [5][10]. - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime route, with oil shipments accounting for one-fifth of the world's total oil supply [8]. Group 2: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices surged over 4% on June 23, reaching a new high for the year, with Brent crude at $75.955 per barrel and WTI at $74.24 per barrel [1]. - Analysts predict significant upward pressure on oil prices, with estimates suggesting Brent crude could exceed $80 per barrel in the short term [10][12]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that if oil flow through the Strait is halved in the first month following the conflict, Brent crude prices could spike to $110 per barrel [13]. Group 3: Potential Supply Disruptions - If the Strait of Hormuz becomes impassable due to conflict, global oil supply could decrease by over 18 million barrels per day, representing a nearly 20% drop [10]. - The potential closure of the Strait is viewed as a last resort for Iran, as it would provoke a strong U.S. response and negatively impact Iran's own economy [10]. - High volatility in energy prices is anticipated, with significant implications for both oil and natural gas markets, particularly in Europe [14].