突然崩了，全线大跌！以色列，发动猛烈空袭！

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has experienced a significant decline against major currencies, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, which may worsen Japan's trade balance and reduce the yen's attractiveness [2][5][6]. Currency Performance - On June 23, the yen fell sharply against major currencies, with the USD/JPY rising by 1.3% to a high of 148.0335, the highest since May 13 [5]. - The offshore yuan also saw a decline of over 1% against the yen, while the Hong Kong dollar, euro, and British pound appreciated against the yen by 1.22%, 0.74%, and 0.66% respectively [5]. Geopolitical Impact - Analysts suggest that Iran may retaliate against the U.S., potentially affecting oil production and exports in the region, which is crucial for Japan as it relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East [5][9]. - Japan imports over 90% of its oil from the Middle East, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices [9]. Economic Implications - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East could lead to increased import-driven inflation in Japan, hindering the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with expectations for the next interest rate hike being pushed to Q1 2026 [7][10]. - Rising oil prices are expected to deteriorate Japan's trade surplus and trade conditions, further weakening the yen [10]. Investment Strategies - U.S. Bank strategists recommend investors buy USD/JPY to hedge against the risks associated with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [8]. - Citigroup analysts noted that rising oil prices could compound downward pressure on the yen, especially given the Bank of Japan's dovish stance in recent policy meetings [10]. Oil Price Outlook - International oil prices have surged, with Brent crude futures rising over 5% and WTI crude futures increasing over 3% on June 23 [14]. - Analysts predict that even a partial disruption in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to significant price increases, potentially reaching $110 per barrel for Brent crude [16][19]. Regional Currency Vulnerability - Other currencies such as the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht are also susceptible to rising oil prices, which may limit the monetary policy flexibility of their respective central banks [11][12][13].