专访管涛：出口多元化见效，房地产政策或将优化

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic data for May shows positive growth in industrial output, retail sales, and trade, indicating a recovery trend in the Chinese economy despite external uncertainties and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year. The total import and export value was 38,098 billion yuan, marking a 2.7% year-on-year increase [1][2]. Consumer Market Insights - The retail sales growth in May was attributed to the effectiveness of the "national subsidy" policy, the early promotion of the "618" shopping festival, and the holiday effect. Notably, categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant retail growth, with increases of 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively [6][7]. - Despite the positive trends, consumer confidence remains fragile, and further efforts are needed to solidify the recovery foundation [7]. Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with sales volume and prices showing signs of stabilization. From January to May, the sales area and sales amount of new commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively [9][10]. - The government is expected to enhance support for the real estate market, focusing on policies that promote stability and recovery [10][12]. Trade and Export Dynamics - High-tech product exports and the performance of private enterprises are crucial for maintaining China's foreign trade resilience. In May, high-tech industries saw an added value growth of 8.6%, outpacing the overall industrial growth [14]. - Private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total foreign trade, indicating their significant role in the export market [14][15]. Policy Recommendations - To support the growth of private enterprises in foreign trade, it is recommended to implement tailored policies that address the challenges posed by tariffs and to enhance support for technological innovation and brand development [15][16]. - The diversification of export markets has shown effectiveness, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN, the EU, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [17]. Economic Outlook - The focus on preemptive measures rather than predictions is emphasized, especially in light of potential economic downturns in the U.S. and their implications for China [18][19]. - The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies is crucial for creating a conducive environment for economic recovery, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity and addressing solvency issues [21].