刚刚！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in July, influenced by moderate inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran [5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed support for a potential interest rate cut in July if inflation remains subdued, indicating a shift in focus towards labor market conditions [5]. - Bowman's comments align with those of another Fed official, suggesting a consensus on the need for a policy adjustment due to reduced uncertainty [5][6]. - Current market expectations indicate a 23% probability of a rate cut in July and a 78% chance in September, reflecting traders' sentiments on future monetary policy [6]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Iran is reportedly planning to retaliate against U.S. military facilities following airstrikes on its nuclear sites, raising concerns about regional stability [8]. - Qatar has temporarily closed its airspace for safety reasons amid escalating tensions, affecting flights and prompting advisories for U.S. citizens in the region [9]. - The U.S. military presence in Qatar, including approximately 9,000 troops, underscores the strategic importance of the region amidst these developments [9]. Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have declined as market fears regarding immediate disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies have eased, following President Trump's call to keep oil prices low [11]. - Analysts note that while geopolitical risks are rising, the global oil supply remains sufficient, mitigating panic among investors [11][12]. - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz is viewed as unlikely due to its own reliance on this route for oil exports and the military presence of the U.S. and allies in the region [12].