霍尔木兹海峡如果关闭，会如何扰动全球经济？

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities has heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potentially impacting global economic stability and inflation dynamics, particularly through the risk of oil price surges if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [1][8]. Geopolitical Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global oil trade, with approximately 20% of the world's oil passing through it, equating to an average of 20 million barrels per day in 2024 [3][4]. - Historical context shows that while Iran has threatened to block the Strait, it has never followed through, but the current situation raises concerns about potential disruptions that could significantly affect oil prices [3][4]. Energy Price Dynamics - Analysts predict that if the Strait were to be blocked, Brent crude oil prices could soar to between $100 and $120 per barrel, exacerbating inflationary pressures globally [2][3]. - The rise in oil prices has already led to increased transportation costs, with insurance rates for Middle East to Asia routes surging by 300% and VLCC tanker rates exceeding $53,000 per day [5]. Economic Consequences - The escalation in energy prices is expected to strain household budgets and increase operational costs for businesses, potentially dampening consumer spending and investment [9][10]. - Global central banks face a dilemma between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation, particularly as energy prices rise amid already slowing economic growth [9][10]. China's Energy Market - China's oil imports are projected to be 553 million tons in 2024, accounting for 75% of its apparent consumption, with current domestic inventories at a historical high of 1.13 billion barrels [14]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the short-term impact on China's oil imports is expected to be limited due to sufficient domestic inventory levels and alternative supply sources [14]. Trade and Export Implications - The ongoing conflict has led to disruptions in trade, particularly affecting exports to Israel and Iran, with reports of significant delays and cancellations in shipments [15]. - China's trade with Iran represents a small fraction of its overall trade, with total trade value in the first five months of 2025 amounting to approximately $4.678 billion, a decline of 20.8% year-on-year [15].