京津冀局地最高气温超40℃引空调热销，7月行业可能回调

Core Viewpoint - The domestic air conditioning market in China has experienced rapid growth in May and June due to high temperatures, national subsidies, and promotional events like the 618 sales, but analysts predict a slowdown in July due to demand front-loading and changes in tariffs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - High temperatures in regions such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei have led to a surge in air conditioning sales, with Su Ning reporting year-on-year sales growth of 68%, 83%, and 65% respectively since June 20 [2]. - During the 618 promotional period, JD reported that orders for AI energy-saving air conditioners and fresh air systems increased by over 500%, while sales of multi-connected central air conditioning units grew by over 220% [2]. - In May, online retail sales of air conditioners increased by 30.4% year-on-year, while offline sales rose by 27.1%, driven by the 618 sales and the old-for-new policy [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - It is expected that domestic air conditioning sales will reach 39.94 million units in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%, but demand may decline in July due to the front-loading of purchases [3]. - The old-for-new subsidy program is expected to pause or limit funding in some regions, leading to a temporary decrease in market demand [3]. - The central government has allocated 138 billion yuan for the old-for-new subsidy program for the second half of the year, with expectations of a 30% increase in the recycling of old household appliances by 2027 [4]. - Analysts suggest that air conditioning companies should manage inventory risks and explore opportunities in rural markets due to anticipated market fluctuations [4].