专家访谈汇总：香港《稳定币条例》将于8月1日生效

Group 1: Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation will take effect on August 1, 2025, marking a significant step in the virtual asset regulatory framework [3] - The regulation sets high entry barriers, requiring issuers to meet regulatory standards similar to banks and e-wallets, including asset reserves and anti-money laundering measures [3] - Investors should focus on local licensed virtual asset platforms and fintech companies with strong regulatory compliance experience, such as OSL and HashKey, which may be among the first to receive approval [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority emphasizes that stablecoin issuers without clear application scenarios will struggle to gain market traction and approval, indicating a shift towards stablecoins as practical financial tools rather than mere investment vehicles [3] - Companies with existing operations in B2B cross-border payments, corporate settlements, and digital trade, like Airwallex and PingPong, are likely to have higher chances of integrating stablecoins into real-world applications [3] Group 2: Coinbase and USDC Market Dynamics - Coinbase's trading commission rate has decreased from 2.5% to 1.4%, primarily due to competition from decentralized exchanges and low-cost channels [2] - Despite short-term volatility recovery, the trading business has lost its "compliance moat" advantage, making future profitability highly dependent on lower fees, higher trading volumes, or innovative products [2] - USDC's market share remains significantly lower than USDT, with approximately 75% market share for USDT, and the compliance benefits of USDC are weakened by partnerships with Tether [4] - USDC is a cash cow but not a growth driver, and Coinbase is not a direct substitute for Circle, indicating that USDC's popularity does not directly translate into Coinbase's valuation logic [4] Group 3: Global Regulatory Trends and Implications for China - Multiple securities firms, including CICC and CITIC, have released reports focusing on the impact of stablecoins on the international monetary system, financial regulation, and cross-border payment ecosystems [5] - Hong Kong is expected to become a testing ground for the RMB stablecoin, with a recommendation to focus on licensed virtual asset platforms and cross-border e-commerce/payment service providers [5] - As regulations become clearer, stablecoins are anticipated to transition from trading tools to mainstream payment methods, facilitating the mapping of Real World Assets (RWA) and B2B settlement scenarios [5] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The Middle East situation has escalated, with increased military tensions between the US and Iran, raising concerns about oil supply risks and providing dual support for oil prices [6] - It is recommended to consider gold investments after adjustments, focusing on leading companies with strong cost control like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold, while also looking at upstream oil and gas resources like CNOOC [6] - The rare earth sector is benefiting from stricter export policies and high demand in the new energy industry, suggesting opportunities in companies with resource control like Northern Rare Earth [6] - The US active drilling rig count has declined for three consecutive weeks, indicating a cautious sentiment in the oil market as companies reduce capital expenditures amid price volatility [6] - Despite the overall high US crude oil production, the decline in completion crews suggests a slowdown in short-term new capacity release, which may provide price support [6]