开“卷”？能源巨头涌入钙钛矿

Core Viewpoint - The enthusiasm for perovskite technology among companies stems from the realization that investments in crystalline silicon are often unprofitable, while the photovoltaic market presents significant opportunities, making perovskite the "only choice" [1][4]. Industry Trends - In the past three years, major photovoltaic companies and energy firms have entered the perovskite sector, with expectations for mass production to begin in 2025 [7]. - Companies like GCL-Poly and several startups are building gigawatt-level production lines, indicating a strong commitment to perovskite technology [3][8][9]. - Leading crystalline silicon manufacturers, including LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar, have also invested in perovskite-silicon tandem cell research, with some already establishing hundred-megawatt production lines [10]. Market Space - Many domestic perovskite companies are targeting applications in areas like streetlights and carports, aiming to penetrate markets that crystalline silicon cannot easily cover [14]. - GCL-Poly has opted to replace crystalline silicon components directly in photovoltaic power plants, indicating a strategic focus on larger-scale applications [15]. - The efficiency of perovskite-silicon tandem cells is projected to reach up to 43%, significantly higher than current crystalline silicon efficiencies, which have not surpassed 26% [18][10]. Technological Complexity - Perovskite technology is considered more complex than crystalline silicon, which may delay the onset of competitive "involution" seen in the crystalline silicon market [5][24]. - The production of perovskite involves significant material innovations, requiring flexible manufacturing capabilities to adapt to new formulations [25][26]. - The transition from single-junction to tandem cells is crucial, as tandem cells can achieve higher efficiencies, but they also present additional technical challenges [28][29]. Future Outlook - The perovskite sector is expected to evolve significantly over the next decade, with the potential for substantial growth and innovation, unlike the stagnation seen in the crystalline silicon market [31].