高盛最新发声：超配中国股票！

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight stance on Chinese stocks, highlighting opportunities in private enterprises, AI concepts, companies exporting to emerging markets, and sectors benefiting from government fiscal spending [1][6]. Economic Outlook - In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP growth reached 5.4%, exceeding expectations, with a projected GDP growth of around 5% for the second quarter, leading to an overall growth of approximately 5.2% for the first half of the year [3]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates further easing policies in the second half of the year, particularly in consumption and investment, despite a low probability of large-scale stimulus measures [3]. - The current housing demand has bottomed out, with a transition from an "incremental market" to a "stock market" in real estate [3]. Geopolitical Impact - The uncertainty arising from Middle Eastern conflicts is deemed manageable for the Chinese economy, with past years strengthening supply chains in food, energy, and high-tech sectors [4]. Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the attractiveness of leading private enterprises, citing a more favorable regulatory environment and improved return on equity (ROE) and revenue growth for these companies [6][7]. - The firm identifies ten leading private enterprises, including Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta Sports, as likely to attract global investor attention [7]. - The firm notes that hedge funds increased their positions in the Chinese market in early 2025 due to the AI boom, although geopolitical tensions led to a risk-off approach in April [7]. Sector Opportunities - Goldman Sachs sees potential in several sectors: - Leading private enterprises with stable cash flows and market concentration potential [8]. - Technology investments driven by AI, with increased capital expenditure expected to enhance competitiveness [8]. - Export-related companies in emerging markets, which are still expanding market share despite U.S. tariff pressures [8]. - Companies focused on shareholder returns, which typically exhibit stable earnings and cash flows [8]. - Sectors benefiting from government fiscal spending, such as medical devices, consumer services, media, and e-commerce [8]. Market Sentiment - The firm indicates that as macro policies become clearer and corporate earnings recover, global funds are likely to become the main source of capital inflow, particularly in sectors with global competitiveness [8].