凤凰网财经·2025-06-24 13:14Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the potential dominance of China in global industries, warning that the U.S. may be left with a "high-priced, low-quality" domestic market due to the ongoing trade war and policy missteps [1][2]. Group 1: China's Industrial Dominance - China is projected to hold a 45% share of global manufacturing by 2030, significantly surpassing the combined output of the U.S., Japan, and Germany [3][7]. - Key industries where China leads include steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, batteries, solar energy, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, 5G devices, consumer electronics, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and high-speed rail [3][8]. - By 2024, China's manufacturing output is expected to reach 31.6%, with projections indicating a rise to 45% by 2030, while the shares of the U.S., Japan, and Germany will decline to 11%, 5%, and 3% respectively [3][7]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Market Position - BYD's market capitalization is projected to exceed the combined total of Ford, General Motors, and Volkswagen by March 2025, highlighting China's growing automotive industry [8][9]. - In 2023, China installed 276,300 industrial robots, accounting for 51% of global installations, further solidifying its position as the largest industrial robot market [9]. - The rise of Chinese companies in high-tech sectors, such as drones and electric vehicles, is attributed to deep participation in global supply chains and technology exchanges [13][19]. Group 3: U.S. Policy and Strategic Challenges - The article critiques U.S. policies that prioritize tariffs and restrictions over innovation, suggesting that this approach undermines the country's competitive edge and could lead to a decline similar to that of Detroit [15][16]. - The U.S. is warned against adopting a zero-sum mindset, which could hinder its ability to adapt to the evolving global industrial landscape [15][19]. - The contrast between China's open approach to globalization and the U.S.'s protective measures is highlighted as a critical factor in the shifting dynamics of global industry [18][19].