第一财经·2025-06-24 13:42Core Viewpoint - Cobalt prices are experiencing significant volatility, with a recent drop of 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan per ton, influenced by extended export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and high inventory pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The DRC, which accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, has extended its export ban, leading to short-term supply constraints and price fluctuations in the cobalt market [3][4]. - The global cobalt market is expected to shift from a surplus of 50,000 tons in 2025 to a shortage of 78,000 tons due to the DRC's export restrictions [4]. - Cobalt is primarily a byproduct of copper mining, and the DRC's policies may prompt a reevaluation of its business environment, potentially increasing Indonesia's market share [3][4]. Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - According to USGS data, global cobalt production is projected to reach 290,000 tons in 2024, with the DRC producing 220,000 tons, a 25% increase year-on-year [4]. - Chinese imports of cobalt intermediate products from the DRC have slightly decreased, but supply risks are anticipated to rise in the latter half of the year due to the DRC's export limitations [6]. - The current price of cobalt has reached the cost line for domestic cobalt salt manufacturers, and a drop below 240,000 yuan per ton could trigger production cuts among high-cost mining companies [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Performance - The profitability within the cobalt supply chain is showing divergence, with upstream producers holding back on sales while downstream sectors remain cautious [5][7]. - Battery manufacturers are increasingly reluctant to absorb rising costs, leading to stable prices in the lithium cobalt oxide market despite stronger cost support [7]. - Companies like Huaneng Cobalt and Tianyuan Cobalt have reported fluctuating profits, with Huaneng Cobalt's net profit in Q1 2025 increasing by 194% year-on-year, while Tianyuan Cobalt's profit has shown a decline in previous years [7][8].