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Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in A-shares is experiencing a technical bull market, with the China Convertible Bond Index reaching a new high, reflecting strong investor confidence and demand due to shrinking supply and favorable market conditions [2][7][10]. Market Performance - On June 25, the China Convertible Bond Index peaked at 439.86 points, marking the highest level since June 26, 2015 [2][5]. - Since September of the previous year, the index has seen a cumulative increase of over 20%, indicating a technical bull market [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The convertible bond market is characterized by a shrinking supply, which enhances its "scarcity" appeal, attracting more capital [3][7]. - The strong performance of the A-share market has bolstered the valuation of convertible bonds [3][7]. Investor Sentiment - Following a phase of credit and delisting risks in the convertible bond market, investor confidence has gradually recovered, leading to increased capital inflow [9]. - Institutional investors, including insurance funds and public funds, are increasing their allocation to convertible bonds to enhance returns, contributing to the market's upward momentum [10]. Fund Performance - Convertible bond funds have shown strong performance, with several funds achieving year-to-date returns exceeding 8% [12][13]. - The scale of convertible bond ETFs has significantly increased, with the largest fund growing fivefold from early 2024 [14]. Profit-Taking Behavior - Despite the strong market performance, there is a notable trend of profit-taking among investors, as seen in the reduction of ETF circulation shares [16]. - Investors are opting to secure profits in light of high valuations and potential market corrections [16][17]. Valuation Concerns - The overall valuation of the convertible bond market is currently high, with a median conversion premium rate close to 30%, and some bonds exceeding 100% [19]. - High-priced convertible bonds are experiencing significant premium rates due to scarcity and market demand, which could lead to increased risk if underlying stock prices fluctuate [19][20]. Supply and Demand Factors - The convertible bond market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a continuous reduction in market size since 2024, leading to a scarcity narrative [20]. - The potential for irrational price increases in remaining quality convertible bonds exists, but investors should be cautious of new issuances impacting market dynamics [20].