报告下载 | 亚太地区油气行业2025年年中展望

Core Viewpoint - Asian oil and gas producers may face significant price volatility in the second half of the year due to OPEC+ production increases, U.S. shale oil exports, and tariff disputes among economies, which threaten long-term oil demand and pricing. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could expand the risk premium for crude oil in the short term, potentially pushing prices up to $90 per barrel, while long-term demand decline may lead to a drop to $40 per barrel [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January 1 to June 13, the Asian oil and gas index underperformed the broader market due to a slowdown in global trade and industrial activity caused by U.S. tariffs, leading to a bleak oil demand outlook. However, the performance gap narrowed in June as investor concerns about the Israel-Iran conflict and potential supply disruptions increased [5][6]. - During the same period, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Energy Index rose by 7.48%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased by 9.1%, indicating that the energy sector lagged behind the broader market [6]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The price-to-book ratio for the Asian oil and gas sector stands at 1.1 times, aligning with the 10-year average, suggesting that investors have not fully accounted for the potential upside in oil prices. The uncertainty from U.S. tariffs has led traders to reduce their exposure to oil, reflected in the declining valuations from January to April [9]. - In June, valuations showed a slight recovery, indicating that traders have reduced earlier bets on falling oil prices following the Israel-Iran conflict. A $1 per barrel change in WTI crude oil price could lead to a $0.8 change in earnings per share for Asian oil companies [9].