突变！美联储，爆出大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts has become uncertain following recent statements from officials, leading to significant changes in market expectations for future rate cuts [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will implement seven rate cuts by July 2026, with the final rate expected to be between 2.5% and 2.75% [2]. - The swap market has increased the probability of a July rate cut from nearly 0% to 40%, with the total expected cuts for the remaining four meetings of the year rising from 45 basis points to 60 basis points [3]. - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Bowman, suggest a potential rate cut as early as July [7][26]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - Deutsche Bank reports that internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve have reached a ten-year high, primarily due to differing views on balancing inflation control and economic growth [4][11]. - The June dot plot indicates a significant polarization in predictions for the federal funds rate in 2025, with a 50 basis point gap between the most common and second most common forecasts, the highest in a decade [12]. - The report suggests that the main issue facing the Federal Reserve is not "historical uncertainty," but rather "historical division" among officials [14]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns that rising tariffs could impact U.S. consumer prices, with Powell indicating that data from June and July will reveal the tariffs' effects on inflation [8]. - Bank of America economists warn that if the labor market remains stable, tariffs could lead to a resurgence in inflation, potentially preventing rate cuts in 2025 [9][10]. - The Kansas City Fed President Schmid emphasized the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on prices and economic growth before making further rate decisions [19][25].