央行连续四个月超额续作！释放重要信号

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through various monetary policy tools to address seasonal liquidity pressures and support economic stability amid increasing market uncertainties [1][2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On June 25, 2025, the PBOC conducted a 300 billion MLF operation with a one-year term to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, following the maturity of 182 billion MLF in June [1]. - The PBOC has implemented a total of 1.4 trillion yuan in reverse repos in June, including 1 trillion yuan for 91 days and 400 billion yuan for 182 days, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 318 billion yuan for the month [1][2]. - The adjustment of MLF operations to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price levels indicates a shift in its role from a policy interest rate tool to a mid-term liquidity management tool [4][5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Expectations - The liquidity supply-demand imbalance is particularly pronounced at mid-year, with significant seasonal increases in bank reserve requirements and a record high of 4.2 trillion yuan in maturing certificates of deposit [2]. - The government bond issuance pressure remains high, with an average net financing pressure of around 1 trillion yuan from June to December, necessitating PBOC's intervention to stabilize liquidity [2][6]. - The expectation of increased government bond issuance in August and September could further strain liquidity, with a projected monthly net financing scale of 1.5 to 1.6 trillion yuan [6][7]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, with potential incremental fiscal measures expected in the second half of the year [9][10]. - The central government's focus on enhancing fiscal support for consumption and investment indicates a strategic shift towards using fiscal policy as a primary tool for economic stabilization, with an expected additional funding of 500 to 1 trillion yuan [10].