美股ETF连发溢价“预警”！收复年内失地后，美股后市怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - Recent trends show a significant increase in premium risks for US stock-related ETFs, with some products experiencing frequent trading halts due to high premiums, indicating a shift in investor behavior towards secondary market trading amid restrictions on fund purchases [1][2][4]. Group 1: Premium Risks and Market Behavior - Multiple US stock-related ETFs have issued premium risk warnings, with the Invesco S&P Consumer Select ETF reporting a premium rate of 21% as of June 25 [3][4]. - The current premium rates for various ETFs include 13.85% for the Guotai S&P 500 ETF, with several other funds exceeding 5% [4]. - The surge in premiums is linked to restrictions on fund purchases, leading investors to turn to secondary markets, which further drives up premiums due to high demand [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Despite a reduction in short-term return expectations for US stocks, a long-term positive outlook remains, particularly in light of the recent recovery of major indices [2][7]. - The potential for a "soft landing" in the US economy is crucial for the future performance of US stocks, with uncertainties surrounding political policies and global economic trends posing risks [7][8]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy and the rise of AI as a key growth driver are seen as factors that could support the resilience of US tech stocks, particularly those represented in the Nasdaq 100 index [8].