四大行再创新高！银行股大爆发，原因曝光

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has emerged as one of the best-performing industries in the first half of the year, with significant stock price increases and a total market capitalization exceeding 15 trillion yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Major Banks - On June 25, several banks, including Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and others, reached new historical highs, contributing to a 1.03% increase in the banking index on that day [3]. - A total of 18 bank stocks have hit historical highs this year, with no bank stock showing a decline since the beginning of the year. All bank stocks are in the green, with 16 stocks rising over 20% and 32 stocks over 10% [3]. - The top-performing banks include Qingdao Bank, Industrial Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, with increases of 33.76%, 32.93%, and 30.81% respectively [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Strong Performance - Analysts attribute the strong performance of the banking sector to macroeconomic conditions and market trends over the past few years. The banking index has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 13.6 percentage points this year [4]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the banking index is 0.68, indicating potential for future growth. The overall upward trend in the banking sector is expected to continue, particularly for regional banks [4]. - The anticipated recovery in revenue and profit growth is supported by the positive contribution of deposit repricing to net interest margins and a potential decline in bond market volatility [4]. Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - The global economic environment has led to a decrease in investor risk appetite, making the undervalued banking sector an attractive defensive asset for risk-averse investors [5]. - The recent regulatory changes in public fund management are expected to increase bank holdings among active funds, which currently have a bank holding ratio of only 3.81%, compared to a 13.67% weight in the CSI 300 index [5]. - The new public fund assessment mechanism is likely to encourage active funds to increase their bank holdings, thereby narrowing the performance gap with benchmarks [5]. Group 4: Dividend Policies and Impact - The continuous dividend payouts from banks have significantly contributed to the sector's growth, with several banks announcing mid-year dividend plans for 2025 [8][9]. - Nanjing Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank have both committed to increasing dividend frequencies in response to policy calls, enhancing shareholder returns [8][9]. - The trend of banks announcing mid-year dividends is expected to bolster their performance and attract more investment [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the core investment logic for the banking sector will persist, driven by high dividend yields, institutional fund inflows, and supportive policies for net interest margins [6]. - The overall funding environment for banks is improving, with increased allocations from passive funds and stable foreign capital holdings [11]. - The combination of macroeconomic policies and microeconomic data is expected to lead to a reassessment of bank net assets, providing intrinsic motivation for industry valuation increases in 2025 [11].