特朗普考虑打破历史惯例，提前宣布美联储下任主席人选

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's criticism of current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his intention to announce a successor as early as September, which would break historical transition norms [1][4]. - Potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman include Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Scott Bessent, and David Malpass, each with varying degrees of alignment with Trump's economic policies [2]. - Trump's plan to announce a successor earlier than usual aims to create a "shadow Fed Chairman" to influence market expectations regarding future interest rates and apply pressure on Powell [4][5]. Group 2 - The proposed early announcement of a successor would establish a new model for Federal Reserve leadership transitions, allowing the nominee to influence market expectations while in a "Chairman-in-waiting" role [4]. - Trump's ongoing public pressure on Powell, including threats of dismissal, has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, challenging the traditional understanding that a Chairman would not be removed without misconduct [5][7]. - Powell's recent testimony highlighted concerns about rising inflation due to tariffs, indirectly responding to Trump's trade policies and interest rate demands, indicating a potential conflict between political pressures and economic data [8]. Group 3 - Analysts warn that Trump's actions may set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and credibility if future leaders prioritize political preferences over economic indicators [9]. - The Trump administration's legal challenges to the independence of federal agencies further complicate the situation, as it seeks to empower the president to dismiss officials from independent institutions [9].