美元，突发！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential acceleration of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by speculation surrounding President Trump's possible nomination of a new Fed chair, which has led traders to increase bets on earlier and larger rate cuts [1][9]. Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - The dollar index fell below the 97 mark, reaching a low of 96.9923, marking the lowest level since February 2022, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 10% [2][3]. - Non-US currencies strengthened, with the Japanese yen rising nearly 1% against the dollar, and both the British pound and euro increasing by over 0.5% [5]. Group 2: Market Speculation and Fed Chair Nomination - The decline in the dollar index is attributed to market speculation that the U.S. may cut interest rates sooner and more significantly than previously expected, influenced by Trump's intensified pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell [9]. - Traders have increased their bets on Fed rate cuts, now anticipating a reduction of 66 basis points by the end of the year, up from 51 basis points the previous weekend [9]. Group 3: Potential Candidates for Fed Chair - Trump is reportedly considering candidates such as former Fed governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, with others including former World Bank president David Malpass and Fed governor Christopher Waller [10]. - The new Fed chair is not expected to take office until May 2026, making an announcement this summer or fall significantly earlier than the traditional transition period [10]. Group 4: Implications of Early Announcement - An early announcement of a new Fed chair could influence investor expectations regarding potential interest rate paths, akin to a backseat driver attempting to steer monetary policy before Powell's term ends [10]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's current stance on interest rates has been vocal, advocating for cuts to lower government borrowing costs [10]. Group 5: Risks and Challenges - Early nomination could pose risks for both the president and the prospective chair, as the latter may face criticism for opposing the current Fed stance or anger Trump by maintaining it [11]. - Economic experts suggest that the sooner Trump announces a successor, the more scrutiny the candidate will face, potentially jeopardizing their chances of taking over from Powell [11].