美元，突发！美债价格攀升！

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields indicate a market re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with interest rate cut expectations becoming a key driver of global capital flows [1][6][16]. Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below 4.3%, while the 30-year yield is around 4.8% [1]. - U.S. Treasury prices have been rising, with significant increases in short-term Treasury futures, particularly the 2-year and 5-year notes, which have seen price increases of 0.65% and over 1% respectively since late May and early June [7][9][11]. - Current yields for key Treasury maturities are as follows: 30-year at 4.812%, 20-year at 4.816%, 10-year at 4.269%, and 5-year at 3.835% [12]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials have made dovish comments, boosting market bets on interest rate cuts, with a notable majority within the committee suggesting that a cut may be appropriate later this year [6][17][18]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to observe more economic data before making policy adjustments, citing a robust economy but acknowledging persistent inflation above the 2% target [17][18]. Economic Outlook and Predictions - Analysts from Zhongxin Jintou express optimism about short-term interest rates declining due to their closer correlation with the federal funds rate, while long-term bonds face greater risks from rising fiscal deficits and uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies [14][15]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation driven by tariff policies may rise to 3.0%-3.3% this summer, suggesting that the Fed may not cut rates until 2026, with a total of seven cuts anticipated that year [19].