美联储，重大信号！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are rising due to uncertainties in the economic outlook, particularly influenced by tariff policies and their potential impact on inflation [1][3][4] - Powell's statements indicate a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, suggesting that the effects of tariffs on inflation could be significant but unpredictable [1][4] - The bond market has reacted to these expectations, with yields on U.S. Treasury bonds declining across various maturities [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows a decline in consumer confidence in the U.S., with the June consumer confidence index dropping to 93, reflecting concerns over the economic impact of increased tariffs [3][4] - The U.S. housing market is also showing signs of weakness, with new home sales falling to an annualized rate of 623,000 in May, a 13.7% decrease from the previous month [4] - Economic indicators suggest a potential slowdown, with forecasts predicting GDP growth rates of 0.8% for Q3 and 0.6% for Q4, alongside a rising unemployment rate [5] Group 3 - The article discusses the inflation outlook, emphasizing that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be delayed due to slow implementation and other factors [7][8] - There is a possibility that inflation could rise in the latter half of the year, influenced by various economic pressures and the potential for price increases from retailers [9] - The Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions will heavily depend on inflation trends and economic performance, with a cautious approach being favored [11][12]