特朗普要换掉鲍威尔？最快9月公布新美联储主席人选

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is considering announcing a successor to current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier than expected due to dissatisfaction with Powell's slow interest rate cuts, despite Powell having 11 months left in his term [1][2][12]. Group 1: Potential Candidates - Trump is reportedly considering former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as potential successors, along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [4][12]. - Other names mentioned include former World Bank President David Malpass and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller as possible contenders [6][24]. - Bessent has shown interest in the position of Fed Chair, despite publicly committing to his role as Treasury Secretary [21][22]. Group 2: Timing and Implications - If Trump announces a successor in the summer or fall, it would be significantly earlier than the traditional three to four months transition period, potentially allowing the new chair to influence market expectations regarding interest rates before Powell's term ends [8][29]. - The early announcement could create a "shadow chair" dynamic, where the new appointee may face challenges in publicly criticizing Powell while needing Senate support for confirmation [29][30]. Group 3: Market and Policy Impact - The potential for a new chair to influence monetary policy discussions is evident, as Waller has already advocated for early interest rate cuts, indicating that the succession debate is affecting Fed policy discussions [26][28]. - Trump's strategy has evolved, as he previously threatened to fire Powell but later retracted that statement amid market instability, highlighting the delicate balance between political influence and Fed independence [29]. Group 4: Candidate Characteristics - Warsh is seen as a strong candidate but has a reputation for being hawkish, focusing more on inflation than employment, which could complicate his potential appointment [14][15]. - Hassett has expressed disinterest in the Fed Chair position, while Bessent's close relationship with Trump may enhance his candidacy [19][22]. - Waller's appeal lies in his tactical positioning within the Fed, as he is viewed as a long-term competitor for the chairmanship [25].