专访郭磊：促消费红利释放，做实内需应对潜在风险

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data from January to May, highlighting strong consumer performance while industrial output and exports show signs of slowing down. The chief economist of GF Securities, Guo Lei, provides insights into the driving factors behind consumer growth and the expected trends for exports and industrial performance in the second half of the year [1][2]. Consumer Performance - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth rate this year, outperforming exports and investments [1]. - The improvement in consumer spending is attributed to several factors, including enhanced economic growth momentum and improved household income expectations, with actual GDP growth rebounding from 4.6% in Q3 of last year to 5.4% in Q1 of this year [5]. - The reduction in mortgage pressure due to lower interest rates has improved household cash flow, leading to a more significant recovery in urban consumption [5]. - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan for long-term special bonds to support consumption, with over 160 billion yuan already disbursed, indicating a solid foundation for consumer demand [6]. Industrial Performance - In May, the industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting resilience despite a slowdown [8]. - The slowdown in industrial output is linked to reduced export demand and a decline in the construction sector, which has led to a decrease in production schedules and inventory levels [8]. - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors continue to grow at rates above the overall industrial average, supported by ongoing policy incentives for innovation and efficiency [9]. Export Trends - Although the export growth rate has slowed compared to previous months, it remains resilient, with significant growth in exports to the EU (12.0%) and Africa (33.3%) in May [13]. - The diversification of export markets has helped maintain overall export performance, with the share of exports to ASEAN rising to 18.5% [13]. - High-end manufacturing products, such as automobiles and integrated circuits, continue to see strong export growth, contributing to the resilience of China's export sector [13]. Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a slowdown in the export-manufacturing sector, with potential countermeasures including promoting counter-cyclical construction and enhancing domestic consumption to offset external uncertainties [11]. - The overall GDP growth rate is projected to remain around 5%, with a focus on optimizing nominal growth and addressing supply-demand imbalances [17]. - Policies aimed at reducing "involution" in industries, such as the automotive sector, are anticipated to intensify, focusing on mergers, capacity optimization, and price stabilization [17].