Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the depreciation of the US dollar due to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which may lead to increased foreign investment in Chinese financial assets and a subsequent appreciation of the Chinese yuan [1][2]. Group 1: US Dollar Depreciation - The US dollar index fell below the 97 mark, reaching its lowest point since March 2022, with a year-to-date decline of approximately 10.9% [3][4]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July have risen significantly, with the probability increasing from under 15% to 23% in just one week [5][6]. - Speculators have increased their net short positions on the dollar to $15.69 billion, the highest level since January [7]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Yuan - The offshore yuan appreciated to 7.1517 against the dollar, the highest since November 2022, but its year-to-date increase of about 3% is lower than other major currencies like the euro and yen [9][24]. - The current high level of the China-US interest rate differential, at -261 basis points, limits the appreciation potential of the offshore yuan [25]. - Emerging market funds are shifting their positions from short to long on the yuan, anticipating a rebound in the yuan's value due to improved economic fundamentals in China and easing trade tensions [26][27]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts predict a further 5.7% depreciation of the dollar over the next 12 months due to various economic pressures, including trade impacts and concerns over US debt sustainability [14]. - The sentiment among Wall Street investors is increasingly bearish on the dollar, with many funds raising their short positions to 25% of their forex trading portfolios [15][19]. - Recent geopolitical tensions have not led to a significant increase in the dollar's safe-haven appeal, further supporting the outlook for yuan appreciation [27].
美元“跌跌不休” 海外基金悄悄入场押注人民币汇率补涨
经济观察报·2025-06-27 06:54