50年后日本GDP仍第4？周休4天？

Core Viewpoint - The Japan Economic Research Center predicts that Japan's GDP will rank fourth in the world by 2075 if it successfully implements reforms and utilizes AI to enhance productivity and talent allocation. Without these changes, Japan's GDP could drop to eleventh place [1][2]. Economic Forecast - Japan's actual GDP in 2024 is projected to be fourth globally, following the US, China, and Germany. By 2075, Japan is expected to remain fourth, with the US and China not experiencing a reversal in their GDP rankings, while India is anticipated to grow and secure the fifth position [2]. - The integration of AI across various sectors is expected to significantly impact business operations, with over 90% of fields affected by generative AI, AGI, and physical AGI [2]. Labor Market Changes - As automation progresses, existing jobs may be replaced, but new positions in development and research are expected to emerge. The average workweek is projected to decrease from 38 hours to 21 hours, potentially leading to a four-day workweek [2]. - The introduction of clearer job descriptions and the abolition of retirement systems are seen as prerequisites for increasing labor participation among the elderly [2]. Education and Demographics - Education spending in Japan is expected to rise from 4.0% to approximately 4.9% of GDP, with an increase in graduate school enrollment and an extension of average education years from 12.7 to 20 years [2][3]. - The total fertility rate is projected to increase from 1.20 in 2023 to around 1.3 by 2075, stabilizing Japan's population at approximately 113 million by the 2050s. The number of foreign residents is expected to rise from about 3.8 million to 15 million by 2075 [3]. Industry and Innovation - Japan faces a common challenge with major European countries regarding the significant slowdown in productivity growth since the 21st century. The lack of development in high-tech industries such as IT, healthcare, and renewable energy is identified as a key issue [3]. - The nurturing of startups is deemed essential, with a call for attracting foreign investment to enhance domestic direct investment due to insufficient venture capital supply [3]. GDP Ranking Projections - If reforms are implemented, Japan's per capita GDP is expected to rise from 29th to 25th in the world by 2075. Conversely, if the status quo is maintained, it could fall to 45th [3].