13个精算师·2025-06-20 08:35Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry is undergoing structural changes, with dividend insurance potentially entering a recovery phase after a period of decline, particularly highlighted by the performance of Taikang's dividend insurance products [1][20]. Group 1: Industry Overview - By the end of 2024, the life insurance industry is projected to have a total premium scale of 4.6 trillion yuan, with original premium income at 4.0 trillion yuan, policyholder investment contributions at 578.7 billion yuan, and new contributions to independent accounts of linked insurance at 16.8 billion yuan [12][16]. - In 2023, the original premium income of the life insurance industry reached 3.5 trillion yuan, with ordinary life insurance contributing 2.0 trillion yuan, dividend insurance at 714.2 billion yuan, health insurance at 72.1 billion yuan, accident insurance at 44.9 billion yuan, universal insurance at 9.7 billion yuan, and linked insurance at 0.4 billion yuan [3][16]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The share of dividend insurance premiums has decreased from 60% in 2005 to a historical low of 20.5% in 2023, indicating a significant structural shift in the industry [6][19]. - The industry is transitioning towards a "low guaranteed + high floating" model to address interest margin losses, facing challenges in consumer perception, sales channels, and product design [8][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The years 2023 and 2024 are seen as critical for the stabilization of dividend insurance, with expectations for a gradual recovery in its market share as the industry transforms and market conditions improve [20][21]. - The top ten companies in dividend insurance premium income for 2023 have been identified, with Taikang Life leading in the proportion of dividend insurance premiums [20][24]. Group 4: Company Performance - The analysis of major companies shows that China Life, Ping An Life, and Taiping Life have high proportions of ordinary life insurance, while Taikang Life has a significant share of 61.1% in dividend insurance [28]. - The new single premium income for the life insurance industry in 2023 was 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a 19-fold increase since 2001, although the proportion of new single premium income relative to total premium income has been declining, standing at 38.2% in 2023 [25][26].