专访宋雪涛：“好房子”入市显效，消费内生动力增强

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data in China, highlighting the growth in consumer spending supported by policies like "trade-in for new" and the stabilization of the real estate market. It raises questions about sustaining this growth amid potential pressures from declining export growth and real estate price fluctuations. Group 1: Consumer Spending - In May, China's total retail sales reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with accelerated growth in consumer goods, particularly in home appliances and mobile phones, driven by the "trade-in for new" policy [1][3] - The "trade-in for new" policy has significantly supported consumption, contributing 1.3 percentage points to the retail sales growth in the first five months of the year [4] - The internal growth momentum for consumer spending has improved due to a decrease in unemployment rates and an increase in disposable income [4][5] Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be around 5.3%-5.4%, with retail sales growth also projected at approximately 5.4% [6] - However, there are concerns that internal consumption growth may face pressures from declining export growth and fluctuations in real estate prices in the second half of the year [6] Group 3: Export and Trade - China's total import and export value in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US declined [8] - The diversification of export destinations has effectively mitigated geopolitical risks, with ASEAN becoming China's largest export market [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with new housing sales showing significant variation across cities. First-tier cities have shown resilience, while second-hand housing prices continue to decline [12][15] - Policies aimed at increasing the supply of quality housing are seen as crucial for stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for further relaxation of restrictive policies in major cities [15]