银行渠道的过去和未来（三）：银保渠道增额终身寿产品的讨论

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and significance of the bancassurance channel in China's insurance market, highlighting its past dominance and current trends in premium contributions, particularly focusing on the growth of regular premium products in recent years [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Development and Current Trends - Bancassurance products have been primarily single premium since their inception in 1996, with new premium income surpassing all other channels by 2007 [1]. - From 2013 to 2016, bancassurance premiums accounted for half of the total life insurance premiums, but this has decreased to around 30% in recent years [1]. - In the last three years, regular premium income from bancassurance has increasingly matched that of individual insurance channels, indicating its growing importance [1]. Group 2: Product Analysis and Risks - The article analyzes the "incremental whole life insurance" product, particularly its return risks before and after the "reporting and banking integration" policy [2]. - After the integration, the new business value (NBV) of bancassurance products significantly increased, even in a declining interest rate environment [2]. - Various scenarios are presented to illustrate the NBV under different investment yield assumptions, emphasizing the impact of pricing and cost structures on product viability [4][6]. Group 3: Product Comparisons and Financial Metrics - Four hypothetical incremental whole life insurance products are constructed with varying cost rates, showcasing their financial metrics such as NBV and cash value at different time frames [4][6]. - Product D exhibits a notable risk of policy lapses after seven years, with potential accounting losses if a high percentage of customers choose to surrender their policies [6][7]. - The article highlights that aggressive companies may offer products with low additional cost rates, which can lead to significant financial risks if investment yields do not meet expectations [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Context - The article predicts that in a low-interest-rate environment, incremental whole life insurance products will attract middle to high-end customers due to their potential for long-term returns that exceed future inflation rates [10]. - It is anticipated that the inflation rate in China will remain below 2% over the next 20 years, with a potential drop to around 1% as the economy matures, making these insurance products appealing for retirement and wealth transfer [10]. - The article also discusses the expected decline in NBV as interest rates continue to fall, with projections indicating a decrease in the NBV rate for products priced at lower interest rates [14][22].