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7月降息预期再遭多位联储官员 “泼冷水”,市场关注美联储“影子主席”人选
第一财经·2025-06-27 08:32

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly the potential for rate cuts in July, influenced by various economic indicators and statements from Fed officials [1][6][10]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - Recent statements from Fed officials, including Waller and Bowman, initially raised expectations for a rate cut in July, but subsequent comments from Powell and others tempered these expectations [1][6]. - The market had priced in two rate cuts for the year, but officials indicated a cautious approach, suggesting that more data is needed before making any decisions [6][9]. Economic Indicators and Fed Officials' Statements - Powell noted that while inflation trends are downward, uncertainties from tariffs complicate the decision-making process, indicating no immediate need for policy adjustments [6][7]. - Williams projected a significant slowdown in U.S. economic growth to around 1% and an increase in unemployment to 4.5% by year-end, while also highlighting the inflationary pressures from tariffs [6][8]. - Other officials, including Daly and Collins, echoed the sentiment of waiting for clearer signals before considering rate adjustments, emphasizing the current favorable position of monetary policy [7][9]. Potential Succession of Fed Chair Powell - There are reports that Trump is considering nominees to succeed Powell, which has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the future direction of monetary policy [3][11]. - The potential candidates include Waller, Warsh, Hassett, and Bessent, with Waller being seen as a frontrunner due to his established relationships and policy experience [12]. - The market is reacting to the possibility of a more dovish "shadow chair" influencing aggressive rate cuts, leading to a decline in the dollar index [12][13]. Conclusion on Fed's Independence - Despite concerns about Trump's influence, experts assert that the Fed's decision-making process involves a collective discussion among FOMC members, ensuring that no single individual can unilaterally dictate policy [13].