以色列伊朗战火背后，地缘政治的复杂博弈｜声东击西

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, focusing on the geopolitical implications and the motivations behind Israel's sudden military actions against Iran, particularly in the context of the nuclear agreement negotiations and regional security dynamics [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Recent Conflict Overview - On June 13, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion" against Iran, targeting military officials and nuclear scientists, which led to a series of retaliatory strikes from Iran against Israeli cities [1]. - The conflict has been characterized as one of the most intense confrontations in recent years, with ongoing military actions and a fragile ceasefire being monitored globally [1][2]. Key Motivations for Israel's Actions - Two critical time points are identified: the impending expiration of the Iran nuclear deal in October 2023 and Iran's advancements in uranium enrichment, which prompted Israel to act preemptively [3][4]. - Israel perceives Iran as a significant threat and is concerned about the potential renewal of the nuclear agreement, which they believe could enable Iran to continue its military nuclear ambitions [4][5]. U.S. Involvement and Strategic Considerations - The article highlights the complex position of the U.S. under President Trump, who is attempting to balance domestic priorities with international diplomacy, particularly in the Middle East [5][6]. - The U.S. has shifted its focus away from the Middle East, which raises concerns for Israel about the reliability of American support in the region [8][23]. Regional Reactions and Implications - Gulf states, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, express a desire for stability in Iran, fearing that a regime change could lead to greater regional instability [20][22]. - The article notes that while Israel seeks to diminish Iran's influence, Gulf countries prioritize economic development and stability over direct confrontation [23][24]. Future Outlook - The ongoing conflict raises questions about the potential for further escalation, with Iran likely to respond aggressively to perceived threats to its nuclear program [25][28]. - The article concludes that achieving absolute security for Israel in the region remains a complex challenge, as the dynamics of power and influence continue to evolve [27][28].