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美欧关税博弈倒计时,德法立场分裂!
第一财经·2025-06-27 14:39

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic divergence between Germany and France in response to the impending U.S. tariffs on the EU, highlighting the differing approaches to negotiations and potential impacts on the European economy [1][5][6]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Threat and EU Response - The U.S. is threatening to impose a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, along with a 25% tariff on automobiles and a 10% baseline tariff on all EU imports [1]. - The European Commission is evaluating the latest U.S. proposal and is prepared for a potential breakdown in negotiations, indicating that "all options are on the table" [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact on Germany - According to the German Ifo Institute, the German manufacturing sector could face severe impacts from U.S. tariffs, with a projected overall shrinkage of 2.8% and a 38.5% drop in exports to the U.S. [9]. - The automotive and pharmaceutical industries are expected to be the most affected, with value losses of 6% and 9% respectively [9]. Group 3: Divergent Strategies within the EU - Germany's Chancellor Merz advocates for a focused approach to negotiate tariffs on key industries, while France's President Macron insists on a zero-tariff agreement, warning against perceived weakness in negotiations [6][7]. - Italy's Prime Minister Meloni suggests accepting some tariffs to avoid worsening the situation, indicating a willingness to compromise [7]. Group 4: Future Trade Strategies - EU officials are considering a framework agreement to buy time for further negotiations, acknowledging the challenges of aligning positions among 27 member states [8]. - The EU is actively seeking to diversify its trade networks, with leaders expressing support for a free trade agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc [10].