黄金，大跳水！牛市还在吗？

Core Viewpoint - Recent geopolitical easing in the Middle East has led to a decline in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures dropping 1.85% to $3286 per ounce, marking a near one-month low [1] Group 1: Market Trends - International gold prices have fallen for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of approximately 5%, falling below the $3300 per ounce mark [2] - The volatility in the U.S. economy, influenced by tariff policies, has led to a phase of range-bound trading for gold after speculative trading [2] - Gold prices reached a peak of $3500 per ounce earlier this year, with a maximum increase of 35% year-to-date, driven by risk aversion and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data shows weakness, with the May PCE index rising 2.3% year-on-year, and core PCE at 2.68%, exceeding expectations but with personal spending and income data falling short [2] - The global demand for gold ETFs saw a significant decline in May, marking the first monthly net outflow since November 2024, with total assets under management decreasing by 1% to $374 billion [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term factors have negatively impacted gold prices, the long-term drivers remain intact, with expectations of continued support for gold due to weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [4] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and rising deficit rates are expected to exacerbate the trend of "de-dollarization," leading to increased market allocation towards gold assets [4]