网红烘焙的冬天还没结束

Core Viewpoint - The baking industry in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with many once-popular brands rapidly closing stores and facing financial difficulties, indicating a shift from a booming market to a challenging environment [5][10][12]. Industry Overview - The baking market size is still growing, with a projected increase of 5.2% in 2024, reaching 110.5 billion yuan [17]. - In 2024, there were 103,000 new baking stores opened, but 95,000 closed, resulting in a net increase of only 8,000 stores [11]. Brand Performance - Notable brands like Huanniu Cake House and Qingdao Royal Meifu have closed multiple locations, reflecting a broader trend of closures among previously successful brands [4][8]. - The "bread first stock" Taoli Bread saw its revenue growth decline from 6.24% to -9.93% over four years, with net profit shrinking by 31.58% [13]. - Yuan Zu Co. reported a nearly 13% decline in revenue and a nearly 10% drop in net profit in 2024 [15]. Market Dynamics - The rapid expansion of baking brands led to oversaturation and increased competition, resulting in price wars and reduced profit margins, with gross margins dropping to 5%-10% [18]. - The industry faces challenges such as high raw material and labor costs, significant rental pressures, and frequent quality control issues [18]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences are evolving, with a focus on taste (44.3%), freshness (43.2%), and nutrition (39.6%) being the top factors influencing purchasing decisions [25]. - The rise of tea beverage giants and supermarkets entering the baking space poses additional competition for traditional baking brands [20]. Future Outlook - The industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, with established brands struggling while new entrants like UH Youhe and One Bagel are attempting to differentiate themselves through quality and health-focused offerings [25][26]. - Successful navigation of the next five years will depend on product innovation, quality control, and strategic expansion [26].