格罗西的忠告与伊核问题的走向

Core Viewpoint - For Iran, as long as it retains its "green mountains," it cannot be considered a loss. The "green mountains" refer to the survival of the regime and the capability to develop nuclear energy [1][12]. Group 1: Iran's Responses - The first response was a symbolic retaliation, where Iran launched 14 missiles at the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, resulting in no casualties due to prior warnings [3]. - The second response involved celebrating a perceived victory, with public celebrations in Iran and a speech from Supreme Leader Khamenei, who claimed victory over "false Jewish nationalism" and the U.S. [4]. - The third response was a national mourning ceremony held in Tehran for over 60 individuals, including high-ranking military officials and civilians, who died in the conflict [6]. Group 2: Future Negotiations - It is anticipated that Iran will soon return to the negotiation table, as indicated by U.S. President Trump's confidence in reaching an agreement regarding Iran's nuclear program [8][17]. - The U.S. aims to place Iran's nuclear development under strict supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and may also seek to limit Iran's missile development capabilities [13]. - Iran's Foreign Minister has publicly requested that Trump show respect towards Iran's leadership if he genuinely wishes to negotiate [8]. Group 3: Nuclear Capabilities - Despite the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, the IAEA Director General stated that some aspects of Iran's nuclear program may still exist, and Iran possesses significant nuclear expertise and industrial capabilities [10]. - The resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue is suggested to require agreements and verification systems rather than military action [10][11].