亚洲疯抢黄金，美国却在高位套现？

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence in the physical gold market between Asia and the United States, with Asian buyers continuing to purchase gold assets while American investors are looking to cash out at high prices, indicating differing economic outlooks and market sentiments globally [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. market for gold bars and coins is experiencing an oversupply, leading some dealers to reduce premiums to the lowest levels in six years to stimulate sales [1]. - The premium for purchasing an ounce of American Eagle gold coins has dropped from $175 four years ago to $20 currently, while sellers now have to pay around $20 to sell gold, compared to a profit of $121 in 2021 [1]. - Sales of newly minted physical gold products, such as the American Eagle coins, have plummeted by over 70% year-on-year in May [1]. Group 2: Regional Demand Trends - Demand for gold bars and coins in North America and Western Europe has been declining over the past three years, while demand in other regions, particularly Asia, has been rising, creating the largest annual gap since records began in 2014 [1][2]. - In the Asia-Pacific region, demand for gold bars and coins is expected to grow by 3% in Q1 2025, with China seeing a 12% increase and countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia experiencing over 30% growth [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - American retail investors, who previously hoarded gold, are now less concerned about risks such as tariffs, rising government debt, and geopolitical tensions, leading to a reduction in their reasons for purchasing gold [2]. - The fear-driven demand for gold among U.S. investors has decreased, as they perceive the current situation to be manageable, with expectations that geopolitical tensions may ease and economic growth may not be as poor as anticipated [3]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - There is a divergence among Wall Street investment banks regarding the future of gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce next year, while Morgan Stanley expects prices to hit $3,800 by year-end, and Citigroup forecasts a drop below $3,000 next year [4].