关税和经济衰退担忧下，美国人正在“报复性储蓄”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging trend of "revenge savings" among American consumers, who are increasingly prioritizing savings over spending due to concerns about tariffs, inflation, job security, and market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Savings Trends - A recent survey by Vanguard indicates that 71% of Americans plan to adjust their savings strategies this summer, focusing on emergency savings and flexibility [1]. - The personal savings rate in the U.S. has increased from 3.5% in December of the previous year to 4.5% in May [1][4]. - In 2024, Americans are reportedly allocating a significant portion of their wages into 401(k) accounts, with the average contribution rate reaching a record high of 9.5% in Q1 2025 [11]. Group 2: Economic Concerns and Consumer Sentiment - Economic uncertainty stemming from tariff negotiations is causing consumers to reduce spending and increase savings [2][4]. - The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board dropped from 98.4 in May to 93.0 in June, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment regarding the economy [7][8]. - Concerns about tariffs remain the primary worry for consumers, followed by inflation, with nearly 70% of respondents anticipating a recession within the next 12 months [8][10]. Group 3: Impact of Tariffs and Inflation - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to exert pressure on economic activity, making businesses hesitant to invest or hire [4]. - A decline in consumer spending was noted in May, with a 0.1% decrease following a 0.2% increase in April, attributed to the waning effects of preemptive purchases made to avoid tariffs [5][6]. - The article highlights that many consumers are shifting from "revenge spending" post-pandemic to "revenge savings," as they seek to build cash reserves for potential future expenses [6][10].