2025年第一季度，美国PC市场迎来强劲开局，同比增长15%，全年增长动力或将减弱

Core Insights - The PC market in the U.S. is experiencing a mixed outlook, with a 15% year-on-year increase in desktop and laptop shipments in Q1 2025, reaching 16.9 million units, but an expected slowdown in overall growth to just 2% for the year due to weakened consumer spending and inventory pressures [1][2][5] - Business demand for PCs is anticipated to remain strong, with commercial PC shipments projected to grow by 8%, contrasting with a 4% decline in consumer PC shipments [1][5] - The transition to Windows 11 is progressing well among U.S. enterprises, which is seen as a positive signal for the industry, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses [2][4] Market Forecasts - For 2024 to 2026, the U.S. PC market is expected to show varied growth rates across segments: consumer market shipments are projected to decline by 4.2% in 2025, while commercial market shipments are expected to grow by 7.9% [5] - The total PC shipments in the U.S. are forecasted to reach 70.4 million units in 2025, with a slight overall growth of 1.8% [5] Consumer Behavior - Despite the impending end of support for Windows 10, consumer demand for PCs has not significantly increased, indicating that many users are indifferent to the change unless it directly impacts their experience [4] - Key drivers for PC purchases remain issues like battery life, device performance, and hardware failures, rather than software updates [4] Industry Challenges - Inflationary pressures and a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are affecting consumer spending on high-priced items like PCs [2] - Retail channels are experiencing high inventory levels, which may lead to pressure on manufacturers' sell-in volumes in the latter half of 2025 [2]