鑫椤储能·2025-07-01 06:49Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBB Act) aims to extend tax cuts from the previous administration while significantly reducing clean energy subsidies from the current administration's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) [1][2]. Summary by Sections Changes in Subsidies - Electric Vehicles: Subsidies for both passenger and commercial electric vehicles will expire by December 31, 2025 [2]. - Renewable Energy Investment Subsidies (Energy Storage): - Projects must start construction within 60 days of the bill's enactment and be operational by December 31, 2028, to qualify for tax credits [3]. - The provision allowing unused credits to be transferable has been changed to non-transferable tax credits [4]. - Foreign entities, particularly Chinese companies like CATL, BYD, Envision Energy, EVE Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and Hichain Energy, will face new restrictions on eligibility for credits [5]. Impact on the Market - The abrupt halt of subsidies may significantly reduce growth momentum in the U.S. electric vehicle market, leading to weakened end-user demand [6]. - In energy storage, the demand for large-scale storage may decline due to the gradual elimination of credits, resulting in a sharp drop in investment returns [6]. - Adjustments to manufacturing subsidies will impact Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers more than Chinese firms, as they rely on raw materials from China [6]. Restrictions on Foreign Entities - The OBBB Act updates the interpretation of FEOC regulations, further tightening restrictions on Chinese companies [7]. - Specific foreign entities, including the aforementioned Chinese companies, are directly affected by the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act [7]. - U.S. companies with financial ties to these designated foreign entities may also lose eligibility for credits, a restriction not present in the original IRA [7]. - The definition of foreign-controlled entities is broad, with Chinese companies needing to maintain less than 50% ownership to avoid restrictions [8]. - Substantial material assistance agreements exceeding $1 million with banned foreign entities will lead to the loss of credit eligibility after two years [8]. Strategic Shifts - If the OBBB Act is enacted, the energy storage market will be most affected, with the U.S. accounting for 30% of domestic energy storage product export demand [9]. - Due to uncertainties in tariffs and domestic policies, Chinese companies are reassessing their investment decisions in the U.S., with some, like Guoxuan and Envision, already reducing production capacity and delaying project developments [9].