2025地市半年报：供应“缩量提质”，存量仍是重点难点

Core Viewpoint - The land market in China is experiencing a "reduction in quantity and improvement in quality," reflecting a shift in the real estate development stage, with a focus on "de-stocking" due to declining new housing sales and high levels of existing land supply [2][3][4]. Group 1: Land Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the transaction volume of operating land in 300 cities decreased by 8% year-on-year, reaching a historical low of 2.5 billion square meters [7][11]. - Despite the reduction in land supply, the average premium rate for land auctions increased to 9.2%, up by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a shift towards higher quality land offerings [8][10]. - Major cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou saw land auction premium rates exceeding 50%, with Chengdu reaching as high as 75% for certain plots [8]. Group 2: Role of Local Governments and Investment Entities - Local governments are controlling land supply while enhancing the quality of land offered, which is seen as a key strategy to reduce real estate inventory [4][25]. - State-owned enterprises and local investment companies are playing a significant role in land acquisition, with local government platforms frequently participating in land auctions [9][10]. - From 2021 to 2024, local investment companies maintained a land acquisition share of over 50%, peaking at 64% in 2024 [10]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Dynamics - The narrow inventory of unsold residential properties decreased to 4.63 billion square meters by the end of May 2025, reflecting a downward trend [11]. - The broad inventory, which includes unsold properties and undeveloped land, remains a concern, with many projects not progressing to construction [12][13]. - The development capabilities of local investment companies are often insufficient, leading to a slow pace of project initiation [14][15]. Group 4: Policy Measures and Future Outlook - Recent government meetings emphasized the need to optimize existing policies to stabilize the real estate market and address issues related to idle land [19][20]. - As of April 2025, 24,000 plots of idle land covering 90,800 hectares have been included in a management list for proper disposal [21]. - The use of special bonds for land recovery has been reintroduced, with over 3,700 plots identified for potential recovery, amounting to approximately 470 billion yuan [24].