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深夜!美联储主席,释放重磅信号!
券商中国·2025-07-01 14:44

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that most Fed members expect interest rate cuts later this year, depending on economic data [2][7]. Group 1: Powell's Statements - Powell stated that the U.S. economy is in a relatively good state, with a solid labor market, and that the Fed's cautious approach is to wait for more information [5]. - He acknowledged that the impact of tariffs is expected to show in upcoming inflation data, but uncertainties remain [6]. - Powell emphasized that the federal fiscal path is unsustainable, despite the debt levels being manageable [9]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, short-term interest rate futures indicated a 25% chance of a rate cut in July, up from less than 20% previously [2]. - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast, predicting the Fed will restart rate cuts in September, three months earlier than previously expected [13]. - Goldman Sachs expects rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December meetings [14]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Outlook - The U.S. job market remains "healthy," but finding jobs has become more challenging, posing short-term downside risks to employment data [15]. - The Labor Department is set to release June non-farm payroll data, which will be crucial for assessing the economic outlook [15]. Group 4: Political Context - President Trump criticized Powell and the Fed, suggesting that rate cuts could save "hundreds of billions" in interest costs [11]. - Trump's ongoing attacks on Powell challenge the Fed's traditional independence from the White House [12]. Group 5: Internal Fed Dynamics - There is a visible divide within the Fed, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts due to cooling inflation, while others, led by Powell, prefer to wait and observe [19].