新高！又新高！银行股再度刷屏，后市如何演绎？

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in A-shares has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with multiple banks reaching historical highs, driven by policy support and increased investment from long-term funds [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On July 1, all 42 listed banks in A-shares experienced gains, with several stocks rising over 2%, and the banking sector index increasing by 1.54% [2][3]. - The banking sector index recorded a cumulative increase of 14.32% in the first half of the year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.29 percentage points [3]. - By June 30, the total market capitalization of the A-share banking sector reached 15.44 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.74% of the total market capitalization of listed companies, with an increase of approximately 1.87 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [3]. Group 2: Dividend Distribution - The total cash dividends distributed by A-share listed banks for 2024 are projected to reach 631.96 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 20 billion yuan compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 3.03% [8][9]. - A total of 39 out of 42 listed banks are expected to increase their cash dividend totals for 2024, with the overall dividend amount rising by 18.6 billion yuan [9]. - The six major state-owned banks are the primary contributors to dividends, with their total cash dividends exceeding 420 billion yuan for 2024 [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The banking sector's strong performance is attributed to the influx of incremental funds driven by policies, including increased participation from long-term funds and public offerings [5]. - Despite high dividend payouts, banks are facing challenges such as slowing revenue growth and narrowing net interest margins, with the net interest margin dropping to a historical low of 1.43% [10][11]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the banking sector's future performance, with expectations of stable fundamentals and continued demand for high-dividend assets [13][14].