天天基金网·2025-07-02 06:37Core Viewpoint - HSBC Global Investment Research indicates that the global economy may face increased downward pressure, with expected growth rates for global goods and services trade exports declining to 1.8% year-on-year by 2025, and global economic growth slowing to 2.5% during the same period [1][2]. Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The "export rush" effect supported economic growth in non-U.S. major economies, including the EU and China, in the first quarter of the year, exceeding initial market expectations [2]. - Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and macroeconomic policies, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, may lead to more downward pressure on the global economy [2]. - HSBC forecasts that global goods and services trade export growth rates will decline to 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, with global economic growth slowing to 2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation is expected to remain sticky, with projections indicating it will stay significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until the end of 2026 [2]. - As a result, the Federal Reserve may only reduce policy interest rates by a cumulative 75 basis points by the end of 2026 [2]. - The uncertainty in tariff outlooks is causing businesses to delay investment decisions, potentially leading to a series of chain reactions that could further drag down economic growth [2]. Group 3: China's Economic Resilience - Despite the changing international landscape, China's economy remains resilient, with a focus on long-term stability through structural reforms [5]. - Recent structural reforms, such as the removal of household registration restrictions for social insurance and the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law, are aimed at long-term policy directions [5]. - The increase in tariffs is expected to have a negative short-term impact on trade, but long-term effects may lead to a new round of industrial chain restructuring and changes in trade and investment flows [5]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - A survey conducted by HSBC revealed that 44% of global enterprises plan to increase trade with China, the highest among targeted markets, followed by Europe (43%) and the U.S. (39%) [7]. - In manufacturing, 40% of surveyed companies are currently or plan to increase production in China over the next two years, second only to Europe (45%) [7]. - Asian enterprises show a higher inclination to increase trade and manufacturing in China, with 54% and 52% respectively, indicating deepening economic ties within the region [7].